In twenty-five years’ time, Poland will no longer be able to use its largest energy source. Coal will be phased out in the country by 2049, leading to a new paradigm in energy production. Structural changes in natural gas supplies due to the war between Russia and Ukraine have only accelerated the search for new energy sources.
ARKADIUSZ WĘGLARZ
PROFESSOR AT THE FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, WARSAW UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, ADVISOR OF THE MANAGEMENT BOARD FOR LOW-EMISSION ECONOMY AT THE POLISH ENERGY CONSERVATION AGENCY.
Poland joined the European Union in 2004 and since then there has been dynamic development in the country. Energy is an integral part of development and the structure of energy consumption is determined by available natural resources. In Poland, the dominant sources of primary energy are anthracite (35%) and lignite (10%), which are mined in the centre and south of the country, and these resources still constitute energy sovereignty. Around 80,000 people are employed in the mining sector. According to an agreement between the government and the unions, it is planned to phase out coalmining in Poland by 2049. This decision represents a significant challenge for the entire energy sector and will require essential socioeconomic changes in the mining regions of Poland.
Arkadiusz Węglarz
PROFESSOR AT THE FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, WARSAW UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, ADVISOR OF THE MANAGEMENT BOARD FOR LOW-EMISSION ECONOMY AT THE POLISH ENERGY CONSERVATION AGENCY.
Another source of primary energy is liquid fuel, i.e. crude oil and petroleum products (22%) – excluding biofuel – and natural gas (16%). Poland’s crude oil and natural gas are sourced from foreign suppliers and the country has gradually been reducing its dependence on supplies from the east, in favour of increasing supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the structure of Poland’s natural gas supply, imports from Russia accounted for the largest share. According to Eurostat data, Poland’s natural gas consumption in 2021 was 23.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) and the import dependency ratio was 83.6%, but still lower than the EU average. It is estimated that in 2022, gas consumption in Poland fell by around 17% year-on-year. At the end of 2022, the last contract for natural gas supplies from Russia expired. Supplies from this direction were replaced by LNG supplies from Qatar, the USA and Norway to the Świnoujście gas port (transmission of 7.5 bcm/year) and the launch of the new Baltic Pipe pipeline (transmission of 10 bcm/year). The Baltic Pipe pipeline enables the transport of gas from gas fields in Norway to Denmark and Poland, as well as to neighbouring countries. In addition, work is underway on the Poland-Lithuania and Poland-Slovakia gas connections.
Zakrzówek lake with steep cliffs in place of former flooded limestone quarry. Recreational place with swimming pools, restaurants and other facilities under construction. Kraków, Poland.
Share of renewable sources in Poland
15%
in 2022
32%
in 2030
Due to the gas supply challenge, it has been decided to reduce the role of gas in the Polish energy sector. New forecasts predict that gas consumption in power plants and cogeneration (combined heat and power, or CHP) will be reduced by around 37% in 2030 and around 45% in 2040.
RENEWABLES CONQUERING MARKET SHARE
The move towards increased use of renewables in the energy sector is progressing gradually. Currently, renewable sources account for 15% of the primary energy balance. At the end of 2022, Poland’s renewable power capacity accounted for 22.7 GW, of which more than 55% was solar, 35% wind, 4% biomass, 4% hydropower and approximately 1% biogas. The level of renewables in the structure of net domestic electricity consumption is expected to reach at least 32% in 2030, primarily as a result of the expansion of photovoltaic and offshore wind farms, which, due to economic and technical conditions, have the greatest prospects for development.
One gigawatt of power (1 GW) provides enough energy for 700,000 households for one year.
The main goals of Poland’s Energy Policy until 2040 emphasise long-term energy security, reducing greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions, increasing energy efficiency and decarbonisation of the transport system.
The progressive electrification of the heating and transport sectors will result in a significant increase in demand for electricity. Meeting this demand will require considerable expenditure on the modernisation of electricity grids and district heating networks. Local balancing, the construction of energy storage facilities and the development of intelligent energy management systems and equipment are the key directions for the success of the energy transition and decarbonisation of the Polish economy.
NUCLEAR POWER ON THE WAY
Nuclear energy could play a significant role in the country’s electricity supply and Poland is planning to open its first nuclear power plant. In September 2023, the contract for the design of the first nuclear power plant in Poland was signed. Construction of the plant will begin in 2026, with the first unit to be commissioned in 2033. Poland’s goal is to have the first reactor with a capacity of between 1 GW and 1.6 GW in operation by 2033 and six reactors with a total capacity of 6 to 9 GW by 2043. It is estimated that by 2040 the share of nuclear power in energy generation could be higher than 20%.
Energy Sources Mix in Poland by 2040
51%
Renewables
22%
Nuclear
15%
Natural gas
8%
Coal
4%
Other sources
There are also plans for the development of a hydrogen economy. The expected support will only cover low-carbon hydrogen (known as green hydrogen), i.e. from renewable sources and created using zero-carbon technologies. It will be possible to obtain some support for hydrogen production from fossil fuels (known as blue hydrogen), provided that carbon capture technologies are used. It is estimated that there will be 2 GW of installed capacity for the production of hydrogen and its derivatives from low-carbon sources in 2030, including the installation of electrolysers, having between 800 and 1,000 new hydrogen buses running in the country and at least 32 hydrogen refuelling stations.
The forecast for electricity demand in 2040 predicts that more than 73% of the power capacity will come from zero-emission energy sources, with 51% of this coming from renewables and 22% nuclear. Gas will account for 15%, coal for 8% and 4% from other sources, like biogas and biomass.
HUGE INVESTMENTS AHEAD
As a result of this profound transformation of the fuel and energy sector, energy costs may increase. It is important that the way the transformation is carried out ensures socially acceptable energy prices and does not exacerbate energy poverty. Equally important is the challenge of preparing the right workforce to carry out the transition, as well as the problem of managing workers from the fossil fuel sector. It is also necessary to prepare society and administrations at various levels for the energy transition. Therefore, information and training activities in broad groups of society are necessary and inevitable.
A key problem from the point of view of Poland, as a country with relatively low energy efficiency and at the same time a high share of fossil fuels in total primary energy consumption, is the financing of the costs of the energy transition.
The strong position of the fossil fuel-based energy sector and the relatively low public awareness of climate protection are the main barriers to the transposition of European directives into Polish law and resistance to the Fit for 55, a European legislation package that refers to the EU’s target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030.
